Asia Quarterly Forecasts

The release of national accounts data gives a good indication of the outlook for the forthcoming period, with the latest statistics likely to have influenced our panel’s quarterly projections earlier this month. When we compare this month’s figures with data from previous surveys, we find that expectations have improved considerably for the majority of countries, with Hong Kong and Malaysia perhaps experiencing the largest upgrades following notable expansions in output of 3.8% (y-o-y) for the former and 5.8% for the latter during the second quarter. In the case of Hong Kong, the Chinese territory benefited from strong exports, as well as robust consumer demand and favourable labour market conditions, whilst Malaysia’s success came on the back of an 8.3% (y-o-y) jump in construction output. Elsewhere in the region, the Philippines continues to impress with statistics revealing a 6.5% (y-o-y) rise in GDP in Q2. This was a slight improvement on the 6.4% increase recorded for Q1, and means that the economy is on track to hit the lower end of the government’s 6.5-7.5% target range for 2017. Meanwhile, near-term forecasts for India have dipped after the economy advanced by a disappointing 5.7% (y-o-y) in the April-June quarter.

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