Eastern Europe Outlook

Most countries in Central and Eastern Europe continue to exhibit a high degree of resilience to global economic headwinds. High frequency indicators for the Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania show that strength in domestic demand has thus far offset external uncertainties, which were exacerbated by Brexit in late June. Admittedly, China has not suffered as much of a slowdown as some observers had feared at the start of 2016, while the expansion in the euro zone is being underpinned by monetary stimulus. In contrast, the soft recovery in the US has dimmed its outlook for 2017, casting doubts over US monetary tightening, with implications for liquidity in the emerging world. The recession in Russia has turned out to be shallower than expected, but growth in 2017 will be modest, hampered by geopolitical tensions and longstanding structural problems. Turkey suffered a credit rating downgrade in late September, but recent data for its economy has been favourable.

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