Mexico: GDP Contracts in Q2

Mexican Q2 GDP shrank by -0.2% in seasonally-adjusted q-o-q terms, with the -1.5% (q-o-q) contraction in industrial activity the biggest drag on growth, while the primary sector (which includes agriculture, fishing and mining) declined by -0.3%. Services barely advanced, by +0.1%. GDP is expected to grow a little more than 2% in 2016, somewhat below last year’s 2.5% pace. This may not be enough to generate significant jobs or income growth which has been a goal of the government’s reform push. Unfortunately, reforms coincided with a renewed downturn in world activity, especially in the emerging markets, as well as a further sharp retrenchment in commodity prices. As an oil producer, the fall in crude has impacted Mexico’s fiscal leeway.

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