G7 Outlook

Soft Q2 GDP data for the US has seen the 2016 GDP consensus forecast plunge, prompting a downgrade in forecasts for most national accounts variables across the board. The 2016 GDP consensus remains unchanged for the UK following a better-than expected 0.6% (q-o-q) expansion in Q2. July business surveys for services and manufacturing indicate a sharp decline in activity post-Brexit, however. Meanwhile, first estimates of Euro zone and French Q2 GDP have so far had little impact on GDP growth expectations for this year. Many Euro area economies are still struggling to reverse the effects of the Great Recession in 2008, which sparked huge rises in joblessness and weaker productivity.

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