Eastern Europe Outlook (Written Prior to Brexit)

In addition to a slowdown in EU development funds, confidence across Central and Eastern Europe continues to be held back by reduced optimism in the private sector. Household consumption has been supported by mild inflation, loose credit conditions and lower unemployment. Yet domestic policy concerns and global uncertainties have constrained business investment. The consensus has slashed its 2016 gross fixed investment forecasts for the Czech Republic and Poland, whilst in Hungary, the decline in sentiment for the current year has been even more pronounced, although a recovery is expected in 2017. For Russia, the consensus has upgraded its GDP growth forecasts for 2016, partly reflecting a rebound in the price of Crude Oil. Driven by government tax cuts, Romania GDP is expected to expand healthily in 2016. The budget deficit, though, is expected to rise.

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