Forecasts for Eastern Europe Downgraded

Although not much hard data was released between December 14, 2015 and January 18, 2016, our first survey of the New Year showed a slippage in forecast expectations for some countries in Eastern Europe. The downgrades mainly reflect adjustments to perceptions regarding investment and risk, which have been complicated by global political and policy uncertainty. Bulgaria benefited from an upgrade, following a solid Q3 2015 performance, but confidence in Russia, Estonia and Ukraine dimmed somewhat. The stormy start to 2016, during which financial turbulence spread from China and commodities slumped as the US started to raise rates, has added to caution. Tensions have also escalated due to the assertive stance from Moscow regarding its interests in the region.

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