Is Poland Going to be Lucky?

Consensus Forecasts

Author Katarzyna Rzentarzewska of Erste Group examines Poland’s outlook for 2013, covering key aspects of the economy, from the real economy, external balance to monetary and fiscal policy and finally politics. She notes that soft domestic demand will drag activity down this year and as a result has revised down economic growth to 1.6% in 2013. Household consumption has been curbed by weak wage growth and investment is not expected to pick up until the second half of this year. Net exports, however, are expected to contribute the most to the economic expansion, on the back of sluggish import demand. Given the economy’s weak outlook and the likelihood of additional rate cuts, Katarazyna Rzentarzewska believes the Polish zloty will remain under pressure until the economy starts to show signs of improvement in the second half of 2013.

This article was featured in a recent issue of Current Economics. You can download a sample at www.consensuseconomics.com.

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