GDP Growth Forecasts Downgraded Again!

Consensus Forecasts
Confidence in Central and Eastern Europe continues to be constrained by euro zone uncertainties and a lack of obvious growth channels and policy solutions.

The downtrend in GDP expectations has persisted for 5 of the 14 larger countries covered. Bulgaria, Croatia and the Ukraine bore the brunt of the latest round of downward forecast revisions.

Forecasts suggest that the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia will find very little (if any) support from household consumption and gross fixed investment in 2013.

2013 inflation risks dropped in several countries alongside a slump in demand, the most dramatic of which has occurred in the Ukraine.

2013 and 2014 consensus GDP growth forecasts for Lithuania  have been upgraded by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3% and 3.6%, respectively.

We’ve updated our twice-yearly survey on Long-Term Forecasts.

You can download a sample of Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts at

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